SKU-Level Demand Forecasting for an FMCG Distributor

Logistics & Supply Chain: Spreadsheet forecasts missed festival peaks and regional swings, leaving some depots out of stock while others carried weeks of…

Client: FMCG Distributor. Industry: Logistics & Supply Chain.

Challenge: Spreadsheet forecasts missed festival peaks and regional swings, leaving some depots out of stock while others carried weeks of excess.

Solution: Built a hierarchical SKU × depot × week forecasting system on Databricks with promotion, festival and weather features, planner overrides in a simple web app, and automated replenishment suggestions.

Technologies: Databricks, LightGBM, Prophet, MLflow, Delta Lake.

• Forecast Accuracy: +22%
• Stock-outs: -35%
• Excess Inventory: -18%
• SKUs Forecast: 8,000+

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